What Is a Correlated Parlay in Sports Betting?

If you’ve been exploring the world of sports betting, you’ve probably come across the term “parlay.” But there’s a lesser-known and potentially lucrative variation called the “correlated parlay.” So, what is a correlated parlay in sports betting? It’s when two or more bets within the same parlay are closely related, meaning the outcome of one significantly impacts the likelihood of the others. This betting strategy, when used correctly, can lead to higher payouts with less risk – assuming you can find a sportsbook that allows it.

Understanding the Correlated Parlay

A correlated parlay occurs when multiple bets in a parlay are connected in such a way that if one wins, the chances of the other winning also increase. This differs from traditional parlays where each leg is statistically independent. With correlated parlays, you’re betting on outcomes that are logically tied together, which can stack the odds in your favor.

For example, let’s say you bet on a team to win and also bet the over on total points. If the team is a high-scoring favorite, their win often comes with a high point total -these two events are correlated. When both bets are included in the same parlay, it becomes a correlated parlay.

Correlated Parlay in Football

Football offers one of the clearest examples of how correlated parlays work. Consider this scenario:

If you’re betting on the Kansas City Chiefs to cover a -7 point spread, and you also bet the total score of the game to go over 52.5 points, these two bets could be correlated. If the Chiefs are expected to win by a significant margin, there’s a good chance they’ll score a lot of points, helping push the game total over.

So, by parlaying both bets, you’re leveraging the likelihood that if one happens, the other probably will too. This is a textbook example of a correlated parlay in football.

Correlated Parlay in Baseball

Correlated parlays in baseball are a bit trickier but still possible. One example might be:

• Betting on a team to win the first five innings.
• Parlaying that with the starting pitcher to record over 6.5 strikeouts.

If the pitcher dominates early, the team is more likely to be ahead after five innings. While not as tightly correlated as in football, there’s a logical connection that makes this combo a reasonable pairing.

Are Correlated Parlays Allowed by Sportsbooks?

This is where things get tricky. Most major sportsbooks do not allow obviously correlated parlays. They’re aware that these types of bets shift the edge toward the bettor. However, some sportsbooks may allow mildly correlated bets, especially if they’re not too obvious.

It’s essential to test your bet combinations before placing them. Some sportsbooks will outright reject correlated parlays, while others may accept them under certain conditions. A growing number of platforms, especially those offering Same Game Parlays, are loosening restrictions, particularly for promotional purposes.

Strategies for Betting Correlated Parlays Legally

Before jumping right into the bullet points, understand that the key to betting correlated parlays legally is knowing your sportsbook’s rules. Avoid directly obvious combinations and look for edges in less noticeable correlations.

Here are a few strategies to help you get started:

• Use Same Game Parlays: These features are often built with correlation in mind, making them the easiest legal method.
• Find Soft Lines: Some books have weaker algorithms and may allow more correlated bets.
• Monitor Line Movement: Watch for line moves caused by injury news or weather changes that create temporary correlation opportunities.
• Build Around Player Performance: For example, parlaying a WR to go over 100 yards with their team winning the game.

Best Sports to Use Correlated Parlays for Profit

While correlated parlays can be applied to multiple sports, some are more suited to this strategy than others. Here’s a breakdown of the most promising options:

• Football (NFL & College): Scoring trends, game scripts, and player performance make this sport ideal.
• Basketball: Player props (perhaps points and team wins) can align well.
• Soccer: Match result and total goals can sometimes correlate strongly.
• Baseball: As mentioned, pitcher performance and first-half outcomes can offer mild correlation.

How to Find Correlated Parlays

Finding correlated parlays isn’t always obvious. It requires a blend of research, game theory, and understanding the dynamics of both the sport and team(s) playing. Here’s how to identify them:

• Analyze Game Scripts: Think about how the game is likely to unfold. If a team is favored to win in a shootout, pairing them with an over makes sense.
• Use Stats Sites: Tools like Pro Football Focus or FanGraphs can reveal statistical correlations.
• Study Team Tendencies: Some teams consistently win high-scoring games, while others grind out low-scoring battles.
• Track Weather and Injuries: External factors like wind, rain, snow or star players being out for a game can create opportunities.

Correlated Parlay Betting Strategy for Beginners

Remember to walk before you run – if you’re new to correlated parlays, start simple and build your confidence. Begin with clear, simple correlations and build your skill from there.

• Stick to One Game: It’s easier to find correlations within a single event.
• Start with Favorites: High-scoring favorites often align with point totals.
• Use Parlay Calculators: Check if your payouts are worth the risk.
• Track Your Bets: Documenting outcomes will help you refine your strategy.

Best Sportsbooks for Correlated Parlays

Not all sportsbooks are created equal when it comes to correlated parlays. Here are some of the best platforms to try:

• FanDuel: Their Same Game Parlay feature is perfect for beginners.
• DraftKings: Offers flexible options.
• BetMGM: Allows a wide range of Same Game Parlay combinations.

Always check the terms and conditions. Just because a platform allows Same Game Parlays doesn’t mean every combination is permitted.

Conclusion

So, what is a correlated parlay in sports betting? It’s a savvy betting technique that combines related outcomes for potentially higher rewards. While it’s not always allowed – and certainly not always easy – it offers a unique opportunity for bettors who are willing to put in the research. From football to baseball, there are real opportunities to leverage correlations and boost your betting profitability. Just remember to stick to legal strategies, use the right sportsbooks, and most importantly – bet responsibly.

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